Поплавко П.С., Нагапетян А.Р. Оценка вариации готовности платить за снижение риска смерти от загрязнения воздуха в зависимости от возраста респондентов

Научная статья
УДК 330.43:519.86
https://doi.org/10.24158/tipor.2025.11.22
 

Оценка вариации готовности платить

за снижение риска смерти от загрязнения воздуха

в зависимости от возраста респондентов

 
Полина Сергеевна Поплавко¹, Артур Рубикович Нагапетян^2
1,2Дальневосточный федеральный университет, Владивосток, Россия,
¹poplavko.ps@dvfu.ru, https://orcid.org/0009-0002-5520-4943
²nagapetyan_ar@dvfu.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7885-2460
 
Аннотация. В исследовании осуществляется попытка моделирования вариации готовности платить за снижение риска смерти от загрязнения воздуха, в том числе ее чувствительности к изменению величины рассматриваемого риска для старшей (25 лет и старше) и младшей (18‒24 лет) возрастных групп. Исследовательская проблема состоит в том, что величина готовности платить изменяется несоразмерно величине предлагаемого снижения риска смерти, что влияет на образование широкого диапазона оценок стоимости статистической жизни. Вариация оценок готовности платить, как и чувствительность к уровням снижения риска, может зависеть от индивидуальных характеристик респондента. Полученные результаты демонстрируют, что при увеличении уровня снижения риска смерти на 1 % готовность платить у младшей возрастной группы увеличивается на 0,141 %, а у старшей ‒ на 0,164 %, при этом готовность платить у младшей возрастной группы выше, чем у старшей, например, при рассмотрении величины снижения риска смерти на 100 на 100 тыс. человек она составляет 1044,56 руб. и 717,17 руб. в месяц соответственно. Оценка стоимости жизни с учетом вариации готовности платить в отношении чувствительности к изменению величины рассматриваемого снижения уровня риска составляет для младшей и старшей возрастных групп 14,3 и 9,7 млн руб. соответственно, тогда как без ее учета диапазон оценок мог бы составить от 7 до 41 млн руб. и от 5 до 27 млн руб. соответственно.
Ключевые слова:статистическая стоимость жизни, вариация готовности платить, загрязнение воздуха, влияние возраста на готовность платить, непропорциональность, условная оценка
Финансирование: статья выполнена при финансовой поддержке Министерства науки и высшего образования Российской Федерации (программа стратегического академического лидерства «Приоритет-2030», проект ДВФУ № АСП-25-03-5.02-0027).
Для цитирования: Поплавко П.С., Нагапетян А.Р. Оценка вариации готовности платить за снижение риска смерти от загрязнения воздуха в зависимости от возраста респондентов // Теория и практика общественного развития. 2025. № 11. С. 195–203. https://doi.org/10.24158/tipor.2025.11.22.
 
Original article
 

Variation in Willingness to Pay for Reducing Mortality Risk

from Air Pollution by Respondent Age

 
Polina S. Poplavko¹, Artur R. Nagapetyan^2
1,2Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia
¹poplavko.ps@dvfu.ru, https://orcid.org/0009-0002-5520-4943
²nagapetyan_ar@dvfu.ru, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7885-2460
 
Abstract. This study attempts to model the variation in willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in mortality risk from air pollution, including its sensitivity to changes in the magnitude of the considered risk reduction for two age groups: the younger group (18–24 years) and the older group (25 years and above). The research problem lies in the fact that WTP does not change proportionally to the magnitude of the proposed reduction in mortality risk, which results in a wide range of estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL). Both the variation in WTP and its sensitivity to different levels of risk reduction may depend on individual respondent characteristics.The results indicate that a 1% increase in the level of mortality risk reduction leads to a 0.141% increase in WTP for the younger group and a 0.164% increase for the older group. At the same time, the younger group demonstrates a higher WTP than the older group. For example, for a reduction of 100 deaths per 100,000 people, the monthly WTP amounts to 1.044.56 RUB for the younger group and 717.17 RUB for the older group. The estimated VSL, accounting for the variation in WTP with respect to sensitivity to the magnitude of the risk reduction, is 14.3 million RUB for the younger group and 9.7 million RUB for the older group. Without accounting for this variation, the estimates would range from 7 to 41 million RUB and from 5 to 27 million RUB, respectively.
Keywords: value of a statistical life, variation in willingness to pay, air pollution, age and willingness to pay, scope insensitivity, contingent valuation
Funding: The article was carried out with the financial support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (strategic academic leadership program “Priority 2030”, FEFU project No. ASP-25-03-5.02-0027).
For citation: Poplavko, P.S. & Nagapetyan, A.R. (2025) Variation in Willingness to Pay for Reducing Mortality Risk from Air Pollution by Respondent Age. Theory and Practice of Social Development. (11), 195–203. Available from: doi:10.24158/tipor.2025.11.22 (In Russian)

© Поплавко П.С., Нагапетян А.Р., 2025

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